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Could it be that many possible sellers are not as concerned that they missed the peak of the real estate market but instead are comfortable with their low rates and increased cash flow. In the past 2 years, 2020-21, a large number of homeowners refinanced. This has continued the trend of families reluctance to sell thus staying in their homes much longer than in the past.

New construction nationwide for entry-level homes typically represented a large % of the overall new single family homes. Now this % has fallen to single digits. One million renters are being priced out of the housing market. 
On the east end, new construction represents every thing above entry-level houses(1,400sf or less). However, builders on the east end are keeping track of nationwide statistics with inflation and higher interest rates slowing down traffic of prospective new home buyers. Builder confidence nationwide continues to fall with material costs up 19% except for lumber which has experienced recent declines due to the housing slowdown. 

Interest rate have increased to 5%+, in fact yesterday I heard in some lending circles, 6% for 30 year mortgages. The increase in rates nationwide has resulted in a weakening in demand for single family homes. However, locally and regionally I haven't noticed a significant shift yet to bring real estate prices down since inventory is still too low. The only single family homes staying "on the market" are considerably "Overpriced" homes. Inventory will increase as rates continue to climb. Then and only then will this unhealthy housing market change. 

Desktop Appraisals are not new. Over the past few years they have gained popularity since it is a quicker and less costly appraisal for the consumer. The Federal Housing Financial Association recently allowed the use of Desktop Appraisals for certain types of purchase transactions.
This much quicker- less expense alternative is due to the removal of appraisers need to visit the subject property or  sales comparable(s) thus no inspections including measuring the homes.*
Desktop Appraisals allow the appraiser to focus on providing the analysis and market expertise, we have rather than form filing. 



*The appraiser may select a "less expensive" inspector to take photo's or measure.

Home prices jumped 19.8% in February, year over year, according to S&P CoreLogic Case Schiller* national home price index. Sun belt cities showed the highest gains while northern regions including New York, saw the smallest price gains. The balance between the low supply of homes versus strong demand, pushed prices higher. I expect the sharply high interest rates in March and April to have a slightly adverse affect on prices. Based on forecasts, I expect appreciation in single family homes to increase throughout the year but at a slower monthly increase of approximately 1%.


*I place more weight on this index based on its theoretical analysis of its research in the real estate market(methodology).

The last week in March produced two changes in the 30 year mortgage rate. On Tuesday, the 22nd, interest rates increase to 4.72%, then on Friday, the 25th, the rates jumped to 4.95%. They are now higher then what borrowers were able to enjoy the last two years. However, according to Freddie Mac, recent 30 year mortgage rates as of February for 2021 were 2.81%; for the same period in 2020, 3.76%; for February, 2019, it was 4.37% and ten years earlier, February, 2009, 5.13%.
Actually, all of these rates stated are a bargain when comparing what borrowers faced in the 1990's, when 7% - 8% were not all that uncommon.

Home prices are still over-heating. Mortgage rates are higher but there still are few homes to buy. Homeowners do not want to sell because they may not be able to re-locate due to the lack of inventory. According to the National Association of Realtors, yes, I am one of them, investors and cash buyers have increased during the past two years. What happen to the notion that Housing is the cost of shelter to own the debt, it's not an investment. Now with inflation rearing its ugly head, will the investors leave. I doubt it, home buying could be considered the best hedge against inflation. 

Mixed-Use refers to a property suitable for a combination of uses including:commercial, residential, retail, office or parking. Mixed-Use 1-4 family unit properties are eligible for FHA insurance provided that a minimum of 51% of the entire building square footage is for residential use and the commercial use does not affect the health and safety of the occupants of the residential property. The property must also comply with applicable zoning ordinances.

The appraiser can not include the value of leased mechanical systems and components in the Market Value of the property. This includes furnaces/water heaters/fuel or propane storage tanks/solar or wind systems-including power purchase agreements, and other systems not owned by the property owner according to HUD policy documents. The appraiser must identify such in his/her appraisal report.
(Need an appraisal? Call or text 631-513-0442 for information including appraisal fee's) 

It is not contrary to popular opinion, conditions for buying a home are terrible on the North Fork, South Fork, Riverhead and Shelter Island. We are dealing with the most significant house demographic patch ever recorded on the east end with Move-Up Buyers/ Move-Down Buyers with lots of cash/ Investors/ and All-cash Buyers. 
You can understand why home buyers are stressed with prices increasing so quickly.
How can this change? Unlike stocks, houses will unlikely drop 15-20% after a bad earnings report. Housing isn't just an investment, it is the purchase of shelter.  Mortgage rates will have to climb perhaps 2+/-%. This will generate more days on the market(DOM) and more of a competitive market or housing prices will become to expensive and natural inflation will affect residential prices and demand.